People are angry about "high" mortgage rates. They're waiting for rates to "go back to normal." But normal never existed. The 2021 rate of 3% was the lowest in 54 years of recorded history. Today's 6% means a 52% payment increase for the exact same house. But here's what most people miss: the 3% rate wasn't the floor. It was like winning the lottery.
Why Were 2021 Mortgage Rates the Lowest in 54 Years?
The 2010s delivered the lowest decade average in history. Then COVID pushed rates to the all-time low. But those years rewired expectations for an entire generation of homebuyers. Anyone who entered the market during that window assumed low rates were permanent. They weren't. The 1980s averaged 13%. The 2010s were the outlier, not the template.
Why Do Homebuyers Think 3% Mortgage Rates Are Normal?
The human brain anchors to recent experience and calls it normal. Millions of Americans bought homes or refinanced during the 2020 to 2021 window. They locked in rates their parents never imagined possible. Now they advise friends and family to wait for rates to come down. But waiting assumes 3% was a baseline worth returning to. It wasn't. It was an emergency response to a global pandemic.
What is a Normal Mortgage Rate? The 8% Historical Average
Today's 6% feels painful only when compared to 2021. Compare it to history, and the picture inverts entirely. The 54-year average is 8%. Current rates are 25% below that average. The high rate narrative collapses under historical scrutiny. We're not in a crisis. We're in a correction back toward historical norms.
Should You Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates or Buy Now?
The fix isn't waiting for rates to return to 2021. They won't. The fix is recalibrating expectations to match 54 years of reality. Buyers who purchased at 3% can stay put and enjoy their windfall. Buyers entering now should compare today's rate to the historical average, not the anomaly. The math favors acting now rather than waiting for a statistical outlier to reappear.
Every generation eventually discovers that the financial conditions of their youth were not permanent. The gift of 54 years of mortgage data is perspective: we can see exactly how rare the 2021 moment was, and how reasonable today's rates actually are. Understanding this doesn't solve the affordability crisis. But clarity restores agency. When we stop waiting for an anomaly to return, we can start making decisions based on reality.