Finance Smart Stories
Smart Stories about mortgages, interest rates, and personal finance decisions using real economic data.
The Sentiment Crash: Why Americans Feel Worse Than During COVID
Finance • Consumer Sentiment • Economic Psychology • Inflation • Recession
COVID lockdowns (April 2020): sentiment 71.8. Today: 53.6. Americans feel 24% worse now than when 22 million lost jobs overnight. GDP recovered. Unemployment stayed low. So why does the economy feel broken?
Sentiment at 53.6 is just 7% above the all-time low. But wage growth now exceeds inflation. The pessimism measures the past. The paychecks measure the future. Recovery happens in wallets first, feelings second.
The 52% Payment Shock: Why Your 2021 Rate Was a Historical Anomaly
Finance • Mortgages • Housing • Interest Rates • Affordability
At 3%, the January 2021 mortgage rate was the lowest in 54 years of recorded history. The 54-year historical average is 8%. Today's 6% rate is actually 25% below that average. On a $300,000 loan, the payment jumped from $1,209 to $1,843. We anchored to an anomaly and called it normal.
Today's 6% rate is 25% below the historical average of 8%. The 2021 rate was a once-in-54-years anomaly, not the baseline. When we stop waiting for an outlier to return, we can make decisions based on reality.