In 1960, the average American woman had 3.65 children. In 2023, that number is 1.62. The US fertility rate has dropped 56% in a single lifetime. We crossed below the replacement level of 2.1 in 1972 and have never recovered. The 2020s represent the lowest fertility decade in American history.
How Far Has American Fertility Fallen?
American fertility has been in a long, steady decline. It was high in the early 1960s, but by the mid-1970s it had already collapsed. The 2000s brought a brief rebound that nearly returned us to replacement level, hinting at a possible turnaround. Then the Great Recession hit, the recovery stalled, and the decline resumed. By 2023, fertility fell to its lowest level ever recorded. The hoped-for rebound after 2007 never came.
Why Do Americans Have Fewer Children Than They Want?
The assumption is cultural: people simply want smaller families. But surveys tell a different story. American women say they want 2.3 children on average. They have 1.6. That 0.7 child gap represents millions of families that never formed. The barrier isn't desire. It's economics. Housing costs absorbed an ever-larger share of income. Childcare became the second largest household expense after housing. Two incomes became necessary for middle-class survival, yet two working parents need childcare they can't afford.
What Changed Between 1960 and Today?
In 1960, a single median income could support a family of four with a home purchase. By 2023, that same relative income requires two earners and still falls short in most metros. The median home price rose from 2x annual income to over 5x. Childcare now costs $10,000 to $20,000 per child annually. The economics of family formation fundamentally changed while the desire remained constant.
Which Countries Have Reversed Fertility Decline?
France invests 2.9% of GDP in family support. The US invests 0.4%. France maintains a fertility rate of 1.8. Nordic countries with universal childcare and paid parental leave maintain rates above 1.6 despite similar economic development. The pattern is clear: investment in families produces families. Every major reversal came from policy, not persuasion.
The 56% decline isn't destiny. It's a measure of accumulated barriers. Every country that reversed fertility decline did it through investment, not persuasion. Paid leave. Affordable childcare. Housing families can afford. The gap between 1.6 and 2.3 children isn't about changing minds. It's about changing math.
When we make family formation possible, families form. The desire is already there. We just need to stop standing in its way.